**MGT613 Operation Management Solved MCQS Chapert 3b by William Stevenson****Forecasting ****52. Forecasts based on judgment and opinion do not include**A. executive opinionB. salesperboy opinionC. second opinionsD. customer surveysE. Delphi methodsSecond opinions mostly describe medical diagnoses, not demand also forecasting.

You are watching: Which of the following features would not generally be considered common to all forecasts?**53. In business, forecasts are the basis for:**A. capacity planningB. budgetingC. sales planningD. manufacturing planningE. all of the aboveA wide range of areas depend on forespreading.**54. Which of the following features would not mostly be considered common to all forecasts?**A. Assumption of a stable underlying causal system.B. Actual results will certainly differ rather from predicted worths.C. Historical data is available on which to base the forecast.D. Forecasts for teams of items tend to be even more accurate than forecasts for individual items.E. Accuracy decreases as the moment horizon boosts.In some forespreading instances historic information are not easily accessible.**55. Which of the following is not a step in the forespreading process?**A. determine the function and also level of information requiredB. get rid of all assumptionsC. establish a time horizonD. choose a forecasting modelE. monitor the forecastWe cannot eliminate all assumptions.**56. Minimizing the amount of the squared deviations roughly the line is called:**A. intend squared error techniqueB. mean absolute deviationC. double smoothingD. leastern squares estimationE. predictor regressionLeast squares estimations minimizes the amount of squared deviations around the approximated regression function.**57. The 2 basic ideologies to forespreading are:**A. mathematical and statisticalB. qualitative and quantitativeC. judgmental and also qualitativeD. historical and associativeE. specific and approximationForecast philosophies are either quantitative or qualitative.**58. Which of the adhering to is not a kind of judgpsychological forecasting?**A. executive opinionsB. sales pressure opinionsC. consumer surveysD. the Delphi methodE. time series analysisTime series analysis is a quantitative method.**59. Accuracy in forecasting deserve to be measured by:**A. MSEB. MRPC. MAPED. MTME. A & CMSE is intend squared error; MAPE is suppose absolute percent error.**60. Which of the following would certainly be an advantage of using a sales force compowebsite to develop a demand forecast?**A. The sales staff is least influenced by altering customer demands.B. The sales pressure deserve to easily identify between customer desires and probable actions.**C. The sales staff is regularly mindful of customers" future plans.**D. Salescivilization are least most likely to be influenced by recent occasions.E. Salesworld are leastern most likely to be biased by sales quotas.Members of the sales force need to be the organization"s tightest connect through its customers.**61. Which phrase many closely explains the Delphi technique?**A. associative forecastB. customer survey**C. series of questionnaires**D. emerged in IndiaE. historic dataThe questionnaires are a means of promoting a consensus among divergent perspectives.**62. The forecasting method which offers anonymous questionnaires to accomplish a consensus forecast is:**A. sales pressure opinionsB. customer surveys**C. the Delphi method**D. time series analysisE. executive opinionsAnonymity is essential in Delphi efforts.**63. One reason for utilizing the Delphi approach in forespreading is to:****A. avoid premature agreement (bandwagon effect)**B. attain a high level of accuracyC. keep accountability and responsibilityD. be able to replicate resultsE. proccasion hurt feelingsA bandwagon deserve to result in renowned but perhaps inprecise approaches to drvery own up various other important considerations.**64. Detecting non-randomness in errors have the right to be done using:**A. MSEsB. MAPs**C. Control Charts**D. Correlation CoefficientsE. StrategiesControl charts graphically depict the statistical habits of foreactors errors.**65. Gradual, long-term motion in time series data is called:**A. seasonal variationB. cyclesC. irregular variation**D. trend**E. random variationTrends move the time series in a long-term direction.**66. The main distinction in between seasonality and also cycles is:****A. the duration of the repeating patterns**B. the magnitude of the variationC. the capability to attribute the pattern to a causeD. the direction of the movementE. there are just 4 seasons however 30 cyclesSeasons occur within time periods; cycles happen throughout multiple time durations.**67. Averaging approaches are beneficial for:**A. differentiating between random and also non-random variations**B. smoopoint out fluctuations in time series**C. eliminating historical dataD. offering accuracy in forecastsE. average peopleSmoothing helps forecasters see previous random error.**68. Putting forecast errors right into perspective is finest done using**A. Exponential smoothing**B. MAPE**C. Linear decision rulesD. MADE. HindsightMAPE depicts the foreactors error family member to what was being foreactors.**69. Using the latest monitoring in a sequence of data to foreactors the next period is:**A. a moving average forecast**B. a naive forecast**C. an exponentially smoothed forecastD. an associative forecastE. regression analysisOnly one item of indevelopment is needed for a naïve foreactors.**70. For the data provided listed below, what would the naive foreactors be for the following duration (duration #5)?**

**D. 61**E. cannot tell from the data givenPeriod 5"s foreactors would certainly be period 4"s demand.

**71. Moving average forespreading techniques execute the following:**A. immediately reflect altering patterns in the dataB. lead changes in the data

**C. smooth variations in the data**D. operate separately of current dataE. aid when institutions are relocatingVariation is smoothed out in relocating average forecasts.

**72. Which is not a characteristic of straightforward relocating averages applied to time series data?**A. smoothes random variations in the dataB. weights each historical worth equallyC. lags transforms in the data

**D. needs just last period"s foreactors and actual data**E. smoothes actual variations in the dataSimple moving averages can call for numerous periods of information.

**73. In order to increase the responsiveness of a foreactors made making use of the relocating average method, the variety of information points in the average should be:**

**A. decreased**B. increasedC. multiplied by a bigger alphaD. multiplied by a smaller alphaE. removed if the MAD is greater than the MSEFewer information points lead to more responsive moving averages.

**74. A foreactors based on the previous foreactors plus a percent of the forecast error is:**A. a naive forecastB. a straightforward moving average forecastC. a centered moving average forecast

**D. an exponentially smoothed forecast**E. an associative forecastExponential smoothing offers the previous foreactors error to form the following forecast.

**75. Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing?**A. smoothes random variations in the data

**B. weights each historical worth equally**C. has actually an conveniently changed weighting schemeD. has actually minimal data storage requirementsE. smoothes real variations in the dataThe the majority of current duration of demand also is provided the the majority of weight in exponential smoothing.

**76. Which of the adhering to smoopoint constants would make an exponential smoopoint foreactors identical to a naive forecast?**A. 0B. .01C. .1D. .5

**E. 1.0**An alpha of 1.0 leads to a naïve forecast.

**77. Simple exponential smoopoint is being used to forecast demand also. The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be 4 devices less than actual demand. The next forecast is 66.6, implying a smoopoint continuous, alpha, equal to:**A. .01B. .10

**C. .15**D. .20E. .60A previous period"s forecast error of 4 units would certainly bring about a adjust in the forecast of 0.6 if alpha equates to 0.15.

**78. Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of .3, what would certainly the forecast for the following period be using basic exponential smoothing?**A. 36.9B. 57.5C. 60.5

**D. 62.5**E. 65.5Multiply the previous period"s forecast error (-5) by alpha and also then add to the previous period"s foreactors.

**79. Given an actual demand also of 105, a forecasted value of 97, and an alpha of .4, the straightforward exponential smoopoint forecast for the following period would be:**A. 80.8B. 93.8

**C. 100.2**D. 101.8E. 108.2Multiply the previous period"s foreactors error (8) by alpha and also then include to the previous period"s foreactors.

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**80. Which of the complying with possible values of alpha would certainly reason exponential smoopoint to respond the most conveniently to foreactors errors?**A. 0B. .01C. .05D. .10

**E. .15**Larger values for alpha correspond with higher responsiveness.