1. Time-series forespreading models: a. are valuable whenever before transforms happen swiftly and also wildly b. are more efficient in making long-run forecasts than short-run forecasts c. are based specifically on historic monitorings of the values of the variable being forecasted d. attempt to describe the underlying causal relationships which produce the observed outcome e. namong the above
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2. The forespreading technique which attempts to forecast short-run transforms and makes use of financial signs recognized as leading, coincident or lagging indications is known as: a. econometric method b. time-series forecasting c. opinion polling d. barometric strategy e. judgment forecasting
3. The use of quarterly information to construct the forecasting model Yt = a +bYt−1 is an example of which forecasting technique? a. Barometric forecasting b. Time-series forespreading c. Survey and also opinion d. Econometric techniques based upon an knowledge of the underlying financial variables connected e. Input-output analysis
4. Variations in a time-series foreactors can be led to by: a. cyclical variations b. secular patterns c. seasonal effects d. a and b only e. a, b, and c
5. The variation in an financial time-series which is caused by significant expansions or contractions usuallyof greater than a year in duration is known as: a. secular trfinish b. cyclical variation c. seasonal result d. unpredictable random factor e. namong the above
6. The form of economic indicator that have the right to ideal be supplied for service forespreading is the: a. leading indicator b. cooccurrence indicator c. lagging indicator d. existing organization inventory indicator e. optimism/pessimism indicator
7. Consumer expenditure plans is an instance of a forecasting strategy. Which of the general categories best described this example? a. time-series forecasting techniques b. barometric methods c. survey techniques and also opinion polling d. econometric methods e. input-output analysis
8. In the first-order exponential smoothing model, the brand-new forecast is equal to a weighted average of the old foreactors and also the actual worth in the the majority of current period. a. true b. false
9. Simplified trend models are mostly appropriate for predicting the milestones in an financial time series. a. true b. false
10. Smoopoint methods are a form of ____ approaches which assume that there is an underlying pattern to be uncovered in the historic values of a variable that is being forecast. a. opinion polling b. barometric forespreading c. econometric forespreading d. time-series forespreading e. none of the above
11. Seasonal variations deserve to be incorporated right into a time-series design in a variety of various ways, including: a. ratio-to-trfinish strategy b. usage of dummy variables c. root expect squared error approach d. a and b only e. a, b, and c
12. For studying demand relationships for a proposed brand-new product that no one has ever before offered prior to, what would be the best technique to use? a. ordinary leastern squares regression on historic information b. industry experiments, wright here the price is collection in a different way in two industries c. customer surveys, wright here potential customers hear about the product and are asked their opinions d. double log practical develop regression version e. all of the above are equally beneficial in this case
13. Which of the adhering to barometric indications would be the most valuable for forecasting future sales for an industry? a. lagging economic indications. b. leading economic signs. c. coevent financial indicators. d. wishful reasoning e. namong the above
14. An instance of a time series data set is one for which the: a. data would be gathered for a given firm for numerous consecutive periods (e.g., months). b. data would certainly be gathered for several different firms at a single suggest in time. c. regression evaluation comes from data randomly taken from different points in time. d. information is produced from a random number generation regime. e. use of regression evaluation would difficult in time series.
15. Examine the plot of data. Sales♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥♥ ♥TimeIt is most likely that the ideal forecasting method for this plot would certainly be: a. a two-period moving average b. a secular trfinish upward c. a seasonal pattern that deserve to be modeled using dummy variables or seasonal adjustments d. a semi-log regression version e. a cubic sensible form
16. Emma uses a linear model to foreactors quarterly same-save sales at the local Garden Center. The outcomes of her multiple regression is:Sales = 2,800 + 200•T - 350•Dwright here T goes from 1 to 16 for each quarter of the year from the first quarter of 2006 ("06I) with the fourth quarter of 2009 ("09 IV). D is a dummy variable which is 1 if sales are in the cold and also dreary first quarter, and zero otherwise, because the months of January, February, and also March geneprice few sales at the Garden Center. Use this version to estimate sales in a save for the initially quarter of 2010 in the 17th month; that is: 2010 I. Emma"s forecast must be:
17. Select the correct statement. a. Qualitative forecasts offer the direction of adjust. b. Quantitative forecasts offer the precise amount or precise portion adjust. c. Diffusion forecasts use the propercent of the forecasts that are positive to forecast up or dvery own. d. Surveys are a form of qualitative forecasting. e. every one of the above are correct.
18. If 2 different financial models are readily available, other points equal, we would certainly a. tfinish to pick the one with the lowest R2. b. pick the model that is the a lot of expensive to estimate. c. pick the version that was the the majority of complicated. d. choose the model that provided the a lot of precise forecasts e. all of the above
19. Mr. Geppetto uses exponential smoopoint to predict revenue in his wood carving company. He supplies a weight of ω = .4 for the naïve foreactors and also (1-ω) = .6 for the previous forecast. What revenue did he predict for March utilizing the data below? Select closet answer. MONTH REVENUE FORECAST Nov 100 100 Dec 90 100 Jan 115 ---- Feb 110 ----MARCH ? ? a. 106.2 b. 104.7 c. 103.2 d. 102.1 e. 101.7
20. Suppose a plot of sales data over time shows up to follow an S-form as depicted listed below.Sales ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ TimeWhich of the adhering to is likely that the finest forespreading useful create to usage for sales data above? a. A linear trfinish, Sales = a + b T b. A quadratic form in T, using T-squared as another variable, Sales = a + b T + cT2. c. A semi-log form as sales show up to be flourishing at a consistent percent price, Ln Sales = a + bT d. A cubic shape in T, using T-squared and also T-cubed as variables, Sales = a + b T + cT2 + d T3. e. A quadratic form in T and also T-squared as variables, Sales = a + b T + cT2
21. Regarding forespreading, which of the following statements is NOT true? a. Operations managers require sales forecasts to arrangement future manufacturing. b. Financial supervisors require approximates of future sales earnings, disbursements & resources expenditures in order to setup successfully. c. Forecasts of crmodify problems are required to arrangement the cash demands of the firm. d. Public administrators and managers of NFP corporations require not foreactors, given that they require not make a profit. e. Both c and d are false.
22. All of the complying with are criteria supplied to select a forecasting approach EXCEPT: a. the accuracy forced of the forecasting design b. the moment compelled to complete the version c. the intricacy of the relationships being foreactors d. the price connected through occurring the forecasting model e. every one of these are criteria offered to choose a forespreading technique
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